The last round of pictures from my morning walks in the Hortpark, Alexandra Arch, Forest Walk neighbourhood. Incase we met before sunrise, I was the indecently dressed guy armed with a camera and a stick. The yellow caterpillar, the wood pecker and the bumble bee in action remain my all time favorites. A [...]
Calculating Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) or Expected Short fall using Historical returns. Imagine a board meeting where you have just presented your Value at Risk (VaR) analysis and a board member asks a simple question. “So what are we talking about here? What is the expectation? What is the most that we can drop if [...]
The boring risk training course traffic update It has been an uphill and downhill ride for the last two years. We have had many moments to celebrate as well as a handful of frustrating close calls. But this morning as I looked at the analytics I realiz...
For the first time since the new T-3 lounge opened at Dubai airport, its empty at 6 am in the morning. Historically come 6 am and the lounge becomes a portrait of weary travelers in search of available space to crash, land, change, shower and chill. But the only problem with that portrait before 1st [...]
Monte Carlo Simulation – Linking financial model to the simulation Since we have a model for simulating oil prices, we are now ready to link our oil price model to projected financial statements for the airline. To do this we need to figure out how to link simulated crude oil prices to jet fuel expense on the [...]
This morning walk at the inclined interchange between Forest top, Henderson Waves & Faber top, I run smack into three beautifully sunlit spider webs. Even though I hate all families of creepy crawlies, the unintended display was so majestic and grand that it had to be captured and shared. In all three instances for somebody [...]
Simulation Modeling – Monte Carlo how to reference for financial simulations While we have shared a great deal about Simulation Modeling and Analysis on this blog, over the years, I felt it would help to finally have some organization. The need became more apparent when I ran sessions in Singapore, Abu Dhabi & Dubai for my [...]